One of the biggest questions about any new MMO is the pay model. Will The Elder Scrolls Online follow the World of Warcraft model and charge subscription fees to access their content? Or will they go the route many other MMOs tend to take, offering content for free with micro-transaction support?
Official Statements
So far, all indications coming from the TESO development team point to a WoW-style subscription service. Purchase the game, buy a year of subscription and renew month to month to get the most out of the game. World of Warcraft has obviously enjoyed significant success with this model. World of Warcraft also has an immense amount of resources to dedicate to content development, as well as a decade of previous games building dedicated fans. Very few franchises other than the Elder Scrolls can hope to match this dedication.
Other games, however, tend to falter after a year or so. The most notable recent conversions are Lord of the Rings Online and Star Wars: The Old Republic. LOTRO enjoyed a long run as a subscription-based MMO, but time and the decline in subscribers led to a transition to free-to-play. The Old Republic barely lasted a year before switching to a freemium model.
Trend Analysis
Given the history of other big-name MMOs, TESO is a high chance of transitioning to a freemium model over the course of its lifetime. Why? Gamers simply don't care for the subscription model any more. If they're paying a monthly fee, they expect a significant amount of ongoing support and content additions. At the same time, the first few months after release are notoriously the buggiest time for any MMO. This means gamers would be asked to pay extra to play during arguably the worst time to play. A bad opening experience and a high price point mean gamers will cancel their subscriptions in record numbers.
On the other hand, Bethesda and Zenimax have the resources to make a high quality game that will draw in new gamers. They don't have to switch to freemium, as long as they can entice enough gamers to subscribe. The Elder Scrolls series has enough die-hard fans and untapped potential to pull it off. They just have to avoid their own reputation for making buggy games. If any franchise is going to develop into a serious P2P competitor to World of Warcraft, the Elder Scrolls Online has the best chance.
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